[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Dec 5 18:57:26 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 051854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051854 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-060100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF VA/SE WV/NE MD AND THE ERN SHORE/DE/SRN NJ

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/WINTER PCPN TRENDS 

VALID 051854Z - 060100Z

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
VA/WV...WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SNOW WILL SPREAD
INTO NRN VA AND MD THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACROSS OK/AR. THIS
IMPULSE WILL TRACK INTO THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS LATER
TONIGHT. SFC LOW IS NOW ANALYZED NEAR ATHENS GA...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONT. ETA HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLNS FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK CLOSER TO
HATTERAS...BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS SETUP...BAND OF
HEAVIEST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS CNTRL INTO NE VA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO SRN NJ/NE MD/DE
BY EARLY EVENING.

LATEST LOCAL/COMPOSITE RADAR ANIMATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING FROM BLF/HSP/FVX/RIC. CLOSER TO THE
VA/NC BORDER...TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. 17Z SPECIAL SOUNDINGS
FROM DULLES AND NE OF BWI INDICATE THAT WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR
THROUGH THE COLUMN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATION SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS AFTER
21-22Z...ACROSS THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS...AND CLOSER TO 06/00Z
TOWARD DOV/PHL.

SUSTAINED MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN THE 700-850MB MAY ALLOW SNOW
TO CHANGE TO A SLEET/SNOW MIX LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL VA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN
VA/SE WV/MD BECOME NEARLY ISOTHERMAL WITH STRONG ASCENT IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC ZONE BY LATE AFTN/EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW RATES INTO THE EVENING.

..TAYLOR.. 12/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

40487504 38638016 37228219 36658153 37407659 39307376
40007415 

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