[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 050035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050035 
NYZ000-050630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 050035Z - 050630Z

...SNOW RATES WILL BE AT LEAST 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN MOST INTENSE
PORTIONS OF LAKE EFFECT BAND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...

LOCAL RADAR LOOPS INDICATE HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS OSWEGO AND
LEWIS COUNTIES IN NRN NY SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. 00Z SOUNDING FROM
BUFFALO INDICATES A FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH
WESTERLIES INCREASING TO AROUND 40-45 KT NEAR 700MB. WINDS WITHIN
THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SINGLE BUT INTENSE BAND OF
HEAVY SNOW. FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS
THE BAND MAY FLUCTUATE A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH...BUT
BASICALLY WILL REMAIN OVER OSWEGO/SRN LEWIS COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY
NRN ONEIDA. THE RUC AND 4KM WRF/NMM BOTH HINT THAT HEAVY SNOW BANDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..TAYLOR.. 12/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43157632 43287745 43837723 44317513 44087418 42987451
42927487 

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