[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 042345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042345 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-050145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 890...

VALID 042345Z - 050145Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN MS AND SRN AL THIS EVENING. A REPLACEMENT WW
MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE REGION.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD JUST NORTH
OF A LINE FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE LA TO NEAR HATTIESBURG MS TO
MONTGOMERY AL. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S F AND DEWPOINTS MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO
SLY WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW A BOW ECHO AND CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY ALONG
THE MS-LA STATE-LINE TO CONTINUE FOR 3 TO 5 MORE HOURS. AS A
RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER FAR SRN
MS AND SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 45
KT WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.

..BROYLES.. 12/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

30689171 31379055 31958851 32078712 31598652 30918642
30118705 29798923 29869132 30029151 

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