[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Dec 4 01:46:41 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 040143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040143 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-040645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN IL/SERN WI/SRN LOWER MI/NRN IND/NRN
OH/WRN PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 040143Z - 040645Z

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCNL HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL IL/SERN WI SPREADING INTO NRN IND/LOWER MI WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HRLY SNOW RATES WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH. ACROSS CNTRL IL...A
MIX OF FZRA AND SLEET IS EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.

PCPN IS FILLING IN RAPIDLY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN IL IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM UPSTREAM WAVE. MEANWHILE...ORIGINAL
DEFORMATION BAND FROM EARLIER IN THE AFTN HAS MOVED INTO LOWER MI.
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KILX /CENTRAL IL/ AND KILN /WILMINGTON OH/ BOTH
SHOW A SUBTLE INVERSION...NEAR THE 750-800MB LAYER. TEMPERATURES ON
THE CNTRL IL SOUNDING ARE MAINLY BELOW FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A VERY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR 800MB. THIS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN AN HOUR OR
TWO.

DOWNSTREAM...FZRA MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING MAINLY 
SOUTH OF A MUNCIE/INDIANAPOLIS LINE /REFER TO MCD 2518 FOR MORE
INFO/. ACROSS LOWER MI/NRN IND...PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. STRONG LIFT THROUGH A SATURATED
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVIER SNOW RATES...UP TO AN
INCH PER HOUR. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO WRN/CNTRL PA AROUND
06Z.

..TAYLOR.. 12/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

40428707 39768875 39879009 40139047 40539079 41079075
42968936 43508837 43158233 42267936 40227986 40268031
40418478 

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