[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 040115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040115 
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-040315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MO...WRN/S CNTRL KY...NWRN/NRN MIDDLE
TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040115Z - 040315Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM SERN MO INTO
EXTREME WRN KY AND NWRN TN.  PARTS OF KY AND TN WILL BE MONITORED
FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE WW.

STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS MOVING EWD ACROSS OK INTO
AR...WITH INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
APPROACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.  SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55
KT EXTENDS FROM MS INTO MIDDLE TN...AND IS PROVIDING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT CURVES FROM A
LOW ALONG THE AR/TN BORDER SEWD INTO CENTRAL AL.  RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE COOL SURFACE
LAYER NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH MODEL
LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE MODEST...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL FORMATION IN
STRONGER CELLS.  WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..WEISS.. 12/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

36818968 37298855 37568616 37508415 36848355 35958417
35748713 35668890 35848956 

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