[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 031141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031141 
NYZ000-031545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 031141Z - 031545Z

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND/BANDS EMANATING FROM LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS W CNTRL NY FROM NEAR FULTON TO
NEAR SYRACUSE AND ORISKANY. SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES PER HOUR MAY CONTINUE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...INTENSITIES
MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS FROM FULTON TO ORISKANY ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BAND WAS MORE INTENSE EARLIER THIS
MORNING WITH A SINGLE BANDED STRUCTURE BUT APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST HOUR. THIS BAND
APPEARS TO HAVE MULTIPLE CONNECTIONS WITH TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON AS WELL AS A FAIRLY LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. WNWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
-13C AT 850 MB AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING OVER LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WAKE OF UPPER LOW LIFTING NWD
THROUGH QUEBEC. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WARMING IN
THE 700 TO 750 MB LAYER AND A LOWERING OF INVERSION HEIGHTS WHICH
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LESS INTENSE BANDS WITH TIME.

..DIAL.. 12/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43557557 43067455 42567468 42877603 43207725 43617722 

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