[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312043 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-312245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA AND NW/NCNTRL MO INTO NE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 312043Z - 312245Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SCNTRL IA INTO NW/NCNTRL MO AND NE KS.
A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE/DEEPEN ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE FROM NEAR DES MOINES IA SWWD TO AROUND ST JOSEPH MO/TOPEKA KS.
AMPLE HEATING HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO GRADUALLY ERODE
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR
AMBIENT CONDITIONS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR /DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT/ INVOF OF THE FRONT
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH ACTIVITY CLOSELY TIED
TO E/SE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL...WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO PROMOTE SOME DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF
EXPECTED HAZARDS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS.

..GUYER.. 08/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

42019410 42089295 41669193 40119273 39289365 38489494
38169633 38719682 39739560 40479499 

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