[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290316 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-290515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 752...

VALID 290316Z - 290515Z

AS OF 3Z...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OCCASIONALLY HAVE BEEN INDICATED
WITHIN OUTER BAND...NOW SHIFTING NWD ACROSS WRN FL PANHANDLE...MOB
BAY REGION...AND SERN MS.  SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS...SOME
ROTATING...WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NWWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN OUTER
BAND AND INNER CORE REGION...AN AREA NOW EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE WRN
FL PANHANDLE WNWWD ACROSS MS SOUND.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
POSE SECOND ROUND OF TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS COASTAL MS/AL THROUGH
5Z.  NEXT...INNER BAND -- EVIDENT AT 3Z FROM ST BERNARD PARISH
ACROSS SRN CHANDELEUR ISLANDS THEN ESEWD OVER GULF...ALSO WILL PIVOT
NWD.  PROMINENT SUPERCELL OVER ST BERNARD PARISH SHOULD MOVE WWD
ACROSS NRN PLAQUEMINES/JEFFERSON/ST BERNARD PARISHES BEFORE
WEAKENING.  ANY OTHER INNER-BAND SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WNWWD
ACROSS AREAS FROM MSY-BIX AS HURRICANE CONTINUES ITS LANDWARD TRACK.


DURING AND AFTER INNER BAND PASSAGE...VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS EYEWALL CORE APCHS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL
SHEAR VECTOR VALUES WILL DECREASE BECAUSE OF MORE HOMOGENEOUS
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH HEIGHT.  TORNADOES STILL ARE
POSSIBLE IN REGION JUST OUTSIDE EYEWALL BUT NOT AS MUCH SO AS WITH
BANDS FARTHER N THROUGH NE OF CENTER.  SOME OF THE FAR SWRN PARISHES
OF WW -- I.E. TERREBONNE/ASSUMPTION/LAFOURCHE -- MAY BE REMOVED FROM
TORNADO WW DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS OPTIMALLY FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES ALONG AND E OF NHC FORECAST TRACK BYPASS THEM TO THE E.

ALTHOUGH EYEWALLS THEMSELVES TYPICALLY DO NOT PRODUCE TORNADOES AS
THEY ARE DEFINED...VERY DAMAGING WINDS AND GUSTS OF TORNADIC
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY.  REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC FOR LATEST INTENSITY/TRACK INFORMATION...AS WELL AS
WATCHES/WARNINGS.

..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

29508636 28959081 31439079 31958636 

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