[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290054 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-290200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753...

VALID 290054Z - 290200Z

WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 4Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE AND ACTIVITY MOVES SE FROM WW.  MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LINGER TO ITS E AND SE.  PER COORD/W TOPEKA...NERN KS COUNTIES
W OF LAWRENCE HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM WW BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PASSAGE AND LACK OF ADDITIONAL/SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION THAT
LIES JUST BEHIND SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS AREA FROM MKC-EMP -- WITH
MOST NEW NERN KS/NWRN MO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO SHIFT
QUICKLY BEHIND BOUNDARY.  FARTHER NE...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
MULTICELL COMPLEX -- NOW EVIDENT FROM DECATUR COUNTY IA SWWD ROUGHLY
ALONG I-35 TO NRN FRINGES OF KC METRO AREA -- IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD OUT OF WW AREA WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.  FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ABOVE SFC FOR ABOUT 50-60 NM BEFORE REACHING RELATIVELY
LOW-THETAE OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS N-CENTRAL
MO.  EXPECT WEAKENING OF THIS ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 3Z AS THIS
OCCURS...AND AS INFLOW LAYER BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM SFC BECAUSE OF
DIABATIC COOLING.  INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOWS FROM N-CENTRAL MO AND
NERN KS COMPLEXES SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD INVOF MO/KS BORDER S OF
MKC...ASSOCIATED LIFT CAUSING SCATTERED TSTMS FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000
J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  PRIND SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR ADDITIONAL WW BECAUSE OF
COOLING SFC LAYER AND WEAK DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR.  HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

39219702 39099645 39149576 39339522 39549486 40079429
40469413 40709391 40599344 40329311 40009303 39779337
39419360 39069358 38819354 38379362 38029394 37829438
37829482 38089549 38689637 

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