[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281756 
TXZ000-NMZ000-282000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM / SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281756Z - 282000Z

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS OVER THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE LOWER 60S AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST DUE TO COOL ADVECTION WITH DISTINCT
VORTICITY LOBE AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...BUT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE RIGHT OR
LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS.

..JEWELL.. 08/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

32060545 32970563 33840614 34560638 34890603 35040540
34910462 34390348 33880328 32300327 31570341 31130375
31480481 

WWWW