[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281649 
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-281845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281649Z - 281845Z

A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER ERN NEB AND PERHAPS NERN KS
IN THE NEXT HOUR.

STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND EXTREME NERN KS. MINOR
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN ARC OF MODEST CYCLONIC MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO MID MS RIVER VLY WILL LIKELY AID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MO RIVER VLY TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY
BE FOCUSED ALONG STALLED SFC BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN
MO NWWD ACROSS ERN NEB. A COUPLE OF ELAVTED STORMS HAVE ALREADY
INITIATED NEAR THE BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT SFC-BASED
ACTVITY TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO
DESTABILZE.

WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY 25-30KT NWLY FLOW ALOFT...AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS CAPABALE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS AND SFC-BASED ACTVITY COULD ALSO PRODUCE
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
RESULTS IN LARGER SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.

..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

39849648 40189911 42530105 42919925 42739708 41579638
39899558 

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