[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261801 
ARZ000-OKZ000-262030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261801Z - 262030Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH
OF NRN AND CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF AR WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOT AND
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA
INDICATING MLCAPE CLIMBING ABOVE 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SPREADING SOUTH FROM MO. STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES WERE CONTRIBUTING
TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK BACKGROUND
FLOW AND LITTLE INHIBITION...NUMEROUS PULSE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS. A WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED FOR THIS REGION AT THIS
TIME UNLESS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...

36459029 34439146 33439385 34539462 35419441 36439414 

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