[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261918 
OKZ000-KSZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261918Z - 262145Z

PORTIONS OF SERN KS AND NRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
SEVERE TSTM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS INITIATING ACROSS
THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS 
THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND LARGE MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN MO. A WEAK
WAKE LOW HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT MESOANALYSES OVER SERN KS...
WITH DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS WAKE LOW ACROSS
NERN OK AND NWRN AR. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS
SITUATED FROM NERN KS SWWD TO NWRN OK WITH A WEAK THERMAL LOW/TROUGH
FORMING NEAR THE FRONT ON THE KS/OK BORDER. AIR MASS NEAR AND AHEAD
OF THESE SFC FEATURES WAS BECOMING VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. INHIBITION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
SUFFICIENTLY FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CU/TCU TO START FORMING FROM EMP
SWWD ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE OLD OUTFLOW. WHILE REGION APPEARS
TO BE WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AT THIS
TIME...ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEB.

PROFILER AND VWP WINDS WERE INDICATING ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED FOR
CELLS TRACKING PREFERENTIALLY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW. EXPECT A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

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