[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261515 
ILZ000-MOZ000-261745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261515Z - 261745Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SERN MO AND SWRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION BY NOON.

MATURE MCS CONTINUES TO MOVES EAST ACROSS NCNTRL MO LATE THIS
MORNING WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM JEF
TO SGF. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE LOW/WAVE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER ECNTRL MO AND WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SERN MO. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
OF STRONG WARM SECTOR HEATING WILL LIKELY OVERCOME REMAINING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INVOF LOW AND WARM FRONT. A BELT OF
DIFFLUENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35KT WILL REMAIN SITUATED ATOP
RELATIVELY WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE
TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED STORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN
AN HOUR OR SO.

..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

36509403 36819437 37959311 38099299 39079237 39569178
39499120 38758953 37988887 37468897 36718952 36569126