[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252012 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK AND THE ERN OK
PANHANDLE...SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS...AND THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 252012Z - 252215Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO S-CENTRAL
KS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

AT 20Z...SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
EXTENDS NNW-SSE FROM 45S HLC TO 15W P28 AND THEN BENDS EWD ACROSS
FAR NERN OK. AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY CAPPED ON THE COOL
/NORTHEAST/ SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH SSELY SURFACE WINDS.
MEANWHILE...AIR MASS HAS HEATED STRONGLY ACROSS SWRN KS SWD ACROSS
NWRN OK WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S...SWLY SFC
WINDS...AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC. MLCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ARE PRESENT JUST WEST AND SW OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NARROW SW-NE ORIENTED LINES OF
BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR NWRN OK.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER FORCING IS WEAK...MOIST MID-LEVEL CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH SUBTLE BOUNDARY LAYER ROLLS/CONVERGENCE ZONES MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS. IF STORMS DO FORM...CELLS WOULD TRACK GENERALLY NEWD AT
20-25KT TOWARD STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CENTRAL KS...WITH
SFC-6KM VALUES OF 40KTS PRESENT AT THE HAVILAND KS PROFILER. MAIN
THREAT WEST OF THE OUTFLOW WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WITH SRH/LOW-LEVEL VEERING ENHANCED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ANY
POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS OR STORMS CROSSING THE BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

..BANACOS.. 08/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

36169962 36130043 36340100 36970104 37680059 38020010
38459880 37889826 36849757 36409866 

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