[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 251828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251827 
FLZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 251827Z - 252030Z

THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF T.S. KATRINA ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL
CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR TORNADO THREAT. TORNADO POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE.
HOWEVER...SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SERN FL
CONTINUES A WWD MOTION AT 5KT PER LATEST ADVISORY FROM NHC. BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A MORE ORGANIZED CURVED SPIRAL
BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED CELLULAR ACTIVITY EXTENDS
FROM COASTAL INDIAN RIVER COUNTY EWD AND ESEWD OVER THE OCEAN NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS. SOME SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONFLUENCE AREA...WITH MUCAPE VALUES
OF 2000-3000 J/KG. GIVEN INSTABILITY AND NEARBY SPIRAL BAND...THIS
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH
INDICATION OF ROTATION WITH EXISTING CELLS TO THIS POINT EAST OF THE
E-CENTRAL FL COAST. MLB VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES MINIMAL VEERING
WITH HEIGHT AND LIMITED VERTICAL SHEAR. BASED ON A CELL MOTION OF
75/30KT...SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 40-50 M2/S2 IN THE 0-1KM AND 0-3KM
LAYERS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 30KT 1-3KM ELY FLOW HAS OCCURRED SINCE
15Z. SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR/SRH PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
TO ALLOW FOR A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF TORNADOES AND POSSIBLE WW. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE CONTINGENT ON OVERALL EVOLUTION/INTENSITY CHANGE OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

..BANACOS.. 08/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

28148181 28378104 28288065 27158012 26468008 26298024
26198069 26168117 26218166 26498217 26948220 27768212 

WWWW