[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230555 
OKZ000-KSZ000-230700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS AND NWRN-NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 740...

VALID 230555Z - 230700Z

LINEAR MCS MOVING ACROSS SWRN KS APPEARS TO HAVE A WELL-DEVELOPED
COLD POOL WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 60S AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES. TSTMS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO INCREASE
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK...ALONG THE NOSE OF A
20-25 KT SWLY LLJ.  TSTM CLUSTER NEAR/N OF KEND WAS BEGINNING TO
FORWARD PROPAGATE AS A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED.

THERE ARE FAVORABLE SIGNALS THAT SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF TSTMS
ACROSS SCNTRL KS/NCNTRL-NERN OK THROUGH DAYBREAK.  WNWLY FLOW REGIME
IN THE MID-LEVELS IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AOB 30 KTS. 
BUT...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS APPEARED TO HEAT CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY
SUGGESTING AN AMPLE AVAILABILITY OF INSTABILITY.  AS COLD POOLS
ACCUMULATE AND SURGE ESEWD...MODEST STORM RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST STRONG TSTM GENERATION.  DESPITE A COUPLE OF
NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER /TIME OF DAY AND RATHER WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW/...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS NON-ZERO AND
MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER WW DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF SCNTRL KS AND
NRN/CNTRL OK.

..RACY.. 08/23/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

38169900 37409562 35209638 35759804 36439983 

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