[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211918 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-212115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 211918Z - 212115Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM NCNTRL/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE ATTRIBUTABLE TO MODEST CELL MOTIONS/HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT.

CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/TOWER COINCIDENT WITH WNW-ESE ORIENTED
FRONTAL ZONE FROM NCNTRL NEB INTO SW IA. IN NORTHEAST NEB...ONE
STRONG STORM HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN ANTELOPE/FAR NRN BOONE
COUNTIES OF 19Z. A FEW OTHER STORMS ALSO NOTED AMIDST POST-FRONTAL
REGIME JUST EAST OF YANKTON SD...APPARENTLY TIED TO SUBTLE IMPULSE
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 3000 J/KG MLCAPE IN PRESENCE
OF VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AIRMASS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NCNTRL
NEB INTO SW IA. IN SPITE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MODEST/ERRATIC
WIND PROFILES SHOULD TEND TO HINDER INDIVIDUAL STORM
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AS REGION WILL REMAIN ON SRN PERIPHERY OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A WATCH SHOULD A SUFFICIENT
COVERAGE OF STORMS MATERIALIZE.

..GUYER.. 08/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

42750064 42649810 42719625 42129477 41369359 40599358
40319512 40559787 40979937 41870076 

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