[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190924 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0424 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IL AND WCNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 733...

VALID 190924Z - 191030Z

SMALL MCS THAT EVOLVED OVER CNTRL IL EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO
BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SEWD INTO SRN IND.  

PLAN VIEW PLOTS OF VWP/PROFILERS SUGGEST THAT THE H9-H85 JET HAS
VEERED TO A MORE WLY TRAJECTORY AS THE GRTLKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MIGRATES FARTHER FROM THE REGION.  CONSEQUENTLY...STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION REGIME HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN KY...SUPPORTING
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS JUST S/SW OF KCVG.  MEANWHILE...TSTMS ACROSS
ECNTRL IL AND WCNTRL IND WERE WEAKENING...DUE IN PART TO THE SHIFT
IN THETA-E ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM.  WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE AN ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS WCNTRL-SRN IND INTO NWRN KY AND EXTREME
SWRN OH...IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREATS HAVE DIMINISHED.  AS
SOON AS THE TSTMS CLEAR THE VALID PORTIONS OF WS733...THE WW WILL
CANCELLED EARLY.  OTHERWISE...A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

..RACY.. 08/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...LOT...ILX...

38978795 39718760 40498747 40298674 39638644 39328496
38888392 38528403 38288445 38368560 38688690 

WWWW