[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101910 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/WRN SD/NEB PNHDL INTO NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101910Z - 102015Z

POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR.

TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
TSTM COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN WY INTO WRN SD...LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SWRN MT AND NWRN CO. CONSIDERABLE
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAVE LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO SOME
DEGREE...THOUGH PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S HAVE RESULTED IN POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. 

CURRENT PROFILERS AND VWPS SHOW THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS/ ACROSS NWRN WY INTO WRN SD IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES IN PLACE OVER THE NRN
PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER DOES INDICATE A 25 KT
MID-LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF SRN
DISTURBANCE...WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FARTHER S OVER NERN CO/SERN WY INTO THE SRN NEB PNHDL.

FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION COUPLED WITH INCREASING HEIGHT
FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. SHEAR INSTABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..MEAD.. 08/10/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

41000259 40360332 40380476 40890539 42390559 44190547
44880483 45040401 45000324 44500254 42230257