[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091755 
TXZ000-091930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091755Z - 091930Z

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REGENERATE OVER MUCH OF TX THROUGH THE DAY.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER.

LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS NWRN INTO SERN TX AND WILL
SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE...AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT N OF BOUNDARY DUE TO PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 10-20 KTS.

WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND WEAK SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER UNORGANIZED WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN
THREAT. HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER W CENTRAL TX WHERE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS.

..JEWELL.. 08/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

31359670 31859596 32069539 31259401 29849408 29279508
28789564 28689634 28979718 30950050 32180158 33110187
32780157 32950103 32860014 32279958 31529786 

WWWW