[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091651 
WIZ000-MNZ000-091815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN INTO NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091651Z - 091815Z

LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY WITH INTENSIFYING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HALF
HOUR OR SO E AND W OF STC WITH A GENERAL EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-35 KTS.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO
THE N OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MPX 0.5 DEGREE BASE
REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD...THUS
INTENSIFYING STORMS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. SOME AIR MASS
MODIFICATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT DIABATIC
HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER NWRN WI.

RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NRN/CNTRL MN IN CONJUNCTION WITH 40-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
STORMS BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED.

..MEAD.. 08/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

45089491 45669497 46209413 46449259 46629111 46238997
45788994 45059085 44809203 44699406 

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