[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081445 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-081615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MN INTO W-CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703...

VALID 081445Z - 081615Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 16Z. SHOULD CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE...WW RE-ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

CLUSTER OF TSTMS IN PROGRESS ACROSS WW 703 HAVE NOT ORGANIZED AS
EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY NOTED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF TSTM COMPLEX WHERE
LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING IS TAKING PLACE. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT OWING TO DIURNAL
WEAKENING OF WLY LLJ AND SWD DISPLACEMENT OF STORMS FROM PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES HAVE DISCOURAGED STORM ORGANIZATION THUS FAR. 

ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS THROUGH 16Z. A REPLACEMENT
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 08/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

45849541 45879022 43449058 43469559 

WWWW