[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080951 
WIZ000-MNZ000-081145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 080951Z - 081145Z

A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF SRN MN AND WRN
WI THIS MORNING.

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...AND AHEAD OF FAST MOVING
UPPER TROUGH...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL MN AND EXTREME WRN WI.
ALTHOUGH STORM UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY ROOTED WELL ABOVE LOW LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION...STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR EXIST IN THE 700MB THROUGH 500MB LAYER TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST RUC FORECASTS INDICATED THAT 45-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN DIRECTED INTO WRN/CNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNRISE. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NOSE OF
THE JET...COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION FROM
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
THREAT OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL STORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 08/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

45999390 46259243 44749128 43849501 45449619 

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