[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031627 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY STATE AND PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031627Z - 031900Z

TSTMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLD DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.  ATTM...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT EVOLUTION WILL BE
MONITORED.

VSBL SATL SHOWS CU FIELD BEGINNING TO EXPAND BENEATH CONVECTIVE
MID-CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 JETLET TRANSLATING THROUGH SERN
ONTARIO.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS LOCATED SW OF A BACKDOOR BAROCLINIC
ZONE WAS BECOMING UNSTABLE OWING TO RESIDUAL SURFACE DEW POINTS OF
65-70F AND INSOLATION. COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT TIED TO THE SPEED MAX...TSTM INITIATION
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING ACROSS ERN NY AND PARTS OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND.  TSTMS WILL PROBABLY FAVOR TERRAIN AND THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY FROM VCNTY KSLK-KGFL AND SEWD INTO MA.  

THOUGH THE FLOW HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24-HRS...PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST 30-40 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND
THE PARENT SERN CANADA UPPER TROUGH MAY ENCOURAGE ISOLD TSTMS TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  MOREOVER...HOT TEMPERATURES AND LARGE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN WILL AUGMENT COLD
DOWNDRAFTS.

..RACY.. 08/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

44967392 43687342 43027244 42757161 42457115 42037098
41717153 41787269 41957399 42637486 44737499 

WWWW