[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030658 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-030830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/NERN SD INTO CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030658Z - 030830Z

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST
INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.  CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS HAS OCCURRED OVER PORTIONS OF NERN
SD/SERN ND INTO FAR W-CNTRL MN...INVOF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SURFACE LOW W OF HON NEWD TO N OF ATY TO BRD INTO NWRN WI.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL SD COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG
WARM FRONTAL ZONE IS LIKELY SUSTAINING THESE STORMS.  RUC PROXIMITY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  CURRENT ABR VWP INDICATES 
30-40 KTS WSWLY FLOW IN THE 3-6 KM AGL LAYER...WHICH IS RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
MOST INTENSE STORMS.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW
MAY BE REQUIRED IF IT APPEARS AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEVELOP.

..MEAD.. 08/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

45549806 46319795 46859663 47129556 47299474 47169396
46889345 46259324 45909344 45639450 45109621 44919713 

WWWW