[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301921 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-302015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...ERN NC...COASTAL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217...

VALID 301921Z - 302015Z

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT SCHEDULED
20Z EXPIRATION.

RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG GUST FRONT...AND LACK OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO
WEAKEN CAPPING...HAVE APPARENTLY INHIBITED MORE VIGOROUS/EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. 
LITTLE IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT TO SUGGEST FURTHER STRENGTHENING IN NEAR
TERM...OTHER THAN PRESENCE OF POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
AHEAD OF GUST FRONT...WHICH CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN. THUS...
SEVERE THREAT HAS NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISHED...BUT IT IS TOO
UNCERTAIN TO CONTINUE WW.

..KERR.. 04/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

36257728 37207703 37707686 37557658 37147635 36417637
35437601 35067628 34807696 34227808 33367910 32778012
33138006 34057894 35727771 

WWWW