[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301717 
VAZ000-NCZ000-301915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA/ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301717Z - 301915Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  NEW WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
BEFORE TOO MUCH LONGER.

45 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD
THROUGH MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  THIS IS OCCURRING AS SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL EAST OF DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW
SHIFTING EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.

IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE FORCING...WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD
THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION.  SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MOIST DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER IS HEATING TOWARD 80F...AND CAPE IS INCREASING TO 1000 J/KG. 
THUS...THOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
COLD POOL IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL...MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS AS THEY
PROGRESS INTO THE RICHMOND/NORFOLK AREAS BY 20-21Z.

..KERR.. 04/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

37817769 38067676 37347591 36307587 35417612 35237732
35577787 36327828 36587833 

WWWW