[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300721 
TXZ000-300945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SW/SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 300721Z - 300945Z

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SCNTRL TX.
WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...AND ACTIVITY
LIKELY TO REMAIN ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY FROM VAL VERDE AND CROCKETT
COUNTIES NEWD TO MENARD AND CONCHO COUNTIES IN TX. THIS CONVECTION
HAS LIKELY INITIATED ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACE WHERE
ISENTROPIC LIFT/FORCING WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM SRN NM AND FAR W TX. GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VLY
WAS LIKELY BEING LIFTED NWWD INTO THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AND
BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RESULTANT INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FUEL A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS WITH
FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. SHORT-TERM MODELS
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SMALL MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM
THIS CONVECTION AND DRIFT ESEWD NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
THROUGH THE MORNING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD FROM THIS CONVECTION AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..CARBIN.. 04/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

30039850 29200099 29640139 30510143 31129999 31379945
31309883 30969844 

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