[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300639 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-300815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...LA...MS...AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 213...

VALID 300639Z - 300815Z

CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS ACROSS
PARTS OF NERN/CNTRL MS...WRN AL...AND NERN LA EARLY TODAY. LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM SFC LOW OVER EXTREME
NWRN AL SWWD TO THE MS RIVER NEAR HEZ. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS PERSIST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WERE MOVING GENERALLY EWD INTO AN AXIS OF
MODEST INSTABILITY FROM THE MS DELTA TO WRN AL. STRONG DEEP LAYER
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...AND CONTINUED LIFT
ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TRACKING EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE MORE ENHANCED NEAR LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL AND
MESOCYCLONE IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MS EWD TO THE AL BORDER IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO WHERE SFC FLOW IS BACKED AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 0-1KM SRH APPROACHING 250 M2/S2. HOWEVER...STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITHIN TROPICAL AIR MASS FROM EXTREME NERN LA ACROSS
SCNTRL MS REGION WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 04/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...SHV...

31429013 31569342 34978894 34938562 

WWWW