[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300355 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-300600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX / SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 300355Z - 300600Z

WEAK / SHALLOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT.  CONTINUED
EROSION OF CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
 STORM DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF
LFK WSWWD TO NEAR DRT. SHALLOW CONVECTION -- PRESUMABLY BENEATH
CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON EVENING RAOBS INVOF 800 MB -- NOW EXTENDS
 AS FAR SW AS THE SAT VICINITY.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION -- IN THE 8 C/KM RANGE...WHICH SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS SHOULD CAP BE BREACHED.  THIS
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING
STORMS WOULD SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD
STORMS FORM.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SERN NM / W TX AND FORCING INVOF COLD FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF CAP FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

..GOSS.. 04/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

30220063 30179995 29839852 29959748 30149682 30609615
31319465 31489348 31059140 29639221 29749390 28849558
28099698 27859873 28400031 29750141 

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