[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291434 
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-291630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR...NW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 291434Z - 291630Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...WW 209 LIKELY WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW
TO BETTER REFLECT THREAT AREA.

SHORT WAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION IS
BECOMING SHEARED AS IT PROGRESSES INTO CONFLUENCE BETWEEN NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES.  PRIMARY SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS STILL WELL UPSTREAM....ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
AND...IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...MID-LEVEL WARMING MAY ULTIMATELY
LEAD TO DEMISE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.  HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID DAY...FROM EASTERN
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING
ABOVE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
OF LITTLE ROCK.

..KERR.. 04/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

35459369 35559266 35509198 35539123 35659027 34569020
34409216 34459273 34789378 

WWWW