[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290936 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-291130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290936Z - 291130Z

ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST OK
ACROSS NORTHERN AR THIS MORNING.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.  AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM
WEST OF FSM.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. 
NAM/RUC MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE IN SPREADING CONVECTION
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE FOR A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
MONITORED FOR TRENDS IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..HART.. 04/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36489443 36539361 36649225 36629122 35939125 35349228
35149371 35159498 35669555 36119544 36439495 

WWWW