[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262017 
FLZ000-GAZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL INTO CNTRL FL PEN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206...

VALID 262017Z - 262115Z

CONTINUE WW.

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WW AREA IN
THE NEAR TERM AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD. 
HOWEVER...AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH PHASING
SHORT WAVES IN NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES CONTRIBUTING
TO LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
TROUGH AXIS IS TAKING ON INCREASING NEUTRAL TILT NOW...AND IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW FIELD ACROSS EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WHICH
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ABOVE COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION. 
CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED
STRENGTHENING COLD POOLS MAY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO SQUALL LINE
APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 27/00Z.

OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY SPREAD OUT OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.

..KERR.. 04/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

31028404 30978311 31048164 31008096 27607965 27648272 

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