[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261137 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-261300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 261137Z - 261300Z

CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN SWRN LA AND SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A WW IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED
FOR SRN LA AND SRN AND CNTRL MS.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 11Z SHOWS SSWLY FLOW TRANSPORTING UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS NWD INTO SWRN LA. THIS IS OCCURRING JUST BEHIND A COASTAL
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NWD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED...AS TEMPS
WARM...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO BECOME SFC-BASED. MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY
SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR AND RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS
ONCE STORMS BECOME SFC-BASED.

..BROYLES.. 04/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

29429200 29689312 29829352 31299302 32169200 32149015
31648842 29448901 29319039 

WWWW