[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260349 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0689
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT MON APR 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 260349Z - 260515Z

CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SEVERE TSTMS PRODUCING HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX...SERN OK AND
SWRN AR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AN NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THESE AREAS.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS OK LATE THIS EVENING AS
A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST FROM SWRN OK AND NWRN TX.
RETREATING DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WAS RECENTLY ANALYZED OVER
SCNTRL OK NEAR CARTER COUNTY AND LATEST SFC/MESONET OBS THIS AREA
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE. RADAR
ECHOES ALSO APPEAR TO BE BACKBUILDING SWWD ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO
THIS REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING. FURTHERMORE...STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE
PROMOTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OVER WISE AND TARRANT
COUNTIES IN NRN TX.

MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NERN TX AND SERN OK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG AND DEEPENING ASCENT
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE OVER THE
REGION. RESULTING TSTM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THEREFORE...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING
CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 04/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

33819674 34669423 32319341 31349449 32099807 

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