[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220316 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-220515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182...

VALID 220316Z - 220515Z

...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
INTO NRN/CNTRL AR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND... 

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE FROM
NOWATA/HASKELL/ADA WITH A BROKEN LINE OF CELLULAR STORMS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THIS LINE. STORM NOW ENTERING ADAIR COUNTY REMAINS
DANGEROUS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS AND
ANOTHER CELL NOW OVER HUGHES COUNTY IS ALSO RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. VAD
WIND DATA FROM FORT SMITH AR SUGGESTS A FAVORABLY VEERING PROFILE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVEN TORNADOES WITH NEARLY 30 KT OF
0-1KM SHEAR. WIND FIELDS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SRN MO ARE EVEN
STRONGER. ALTHOUGH THE MOST INTENSE LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS
FOCUSED ACROSS MO OVERNIGHT...UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ERN OK/OZARKS. 

ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS EXCEPT THE OPERATIONAL ETA /NAM/ FORECAST
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SE OK/AR TONIGHT. GIVEN
THAT DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ARE MAINLY NW/SE...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT
STORMS NOW OVER SW MO MAY TURN MORE SE WITH TIME AFFECTING NRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS OF AR.

..TAYLOR.. 04/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

34669226 34719648 36509569 36509125 

WWWW