[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212351 
MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-220115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...EXTREME SWRN IA...NERN KS AND
NWRN/WCNTRL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178...

VALID 212351Z - 220115Z

SUPERCELL THAT TRACKED ACROSS FAR NRN SUBURBS OF KANSAS CITY EARLIER
THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CHARACTER AS IT MOVES THROUGH RAY
COUNTY MO.  OTHER STORMS HAVE FORMED DOWNSTREAM VCNTY THE WARM FRONT
TO NEAR KCOU...SO THE SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
RAIN-COOLED INFLOW FARTHER EAST.  

TSTMS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM OLATHE SWD IN WT 178 ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE MO BORDER. 
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW WEDGE OF AIR THAT HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED
BY OUTFLOWS.  THESE STORMS MAY POSE A TORNADO THREAT AS THEY MOVE
EWD INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY...BUT MORE LIKELY DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL THREATS. 

ELSEWHERE...DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS ADVECTING ENEWD INTO
THE MO RVR VLY FROM NERN KS INTO SERN NEB...WITH A FEW TSTMS
INITIATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS...AFTER
INITIATION...APPEAR TO MOVE NEWD ATOP COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS SWRN IA AND EXTREME NRN MO.  THIS WILL DIMINISH THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL...BUT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE.

..RACY.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

39059589 40259628 41369683 41379525 40629499 40139415
38749329 38389311 38309535 

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