[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212252 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-212345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...EXTREME SWRN IA...NRN MO AND
WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 176...178...

VALID 212252Z - 212345Z

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 176 EXPIRES AT 00Z AND TORNADO WATCH 178 EXPIRES
AT 04Z.  CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE SEVERE THREATS WILL
NECESSITATE A REORGANIZATION OF WATCHES BY 00Z.  

STRONGEST TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FROM THE KANSAS CITY AREA
EWD ACROSS NRN MO TO NEAR KSTL AND WCNTRL IL.  MESOANALYSIS PLACES A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THIS AREA.  TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION
OF ENHANCED SRH.  HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO WILL EXIST
ACROSS WCNTRL-NCNTRL MO WHERE THE NRN EDGE OF HOTTEST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR EXISTS.  BUT...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALL ALONG THE WARM
FRONT FARTHER EAST.

LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR MORE MCS/S SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED
LATER THIS EVENING AND TRACK ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND INTO THE
LOWER OH/MID-MS VLY.  WHEN CELLS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO
CLUSTERS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT THAN
TORNADOES...ALONG WITH RISKS OF HAIL.

..RACY.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

38188955 38089123 38669338 38349458 39419597 41179688
41369550 40459447 39789271 39469075 39028965 38478944 

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