[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210145 
OKZ000-TXZ000-210315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210145Z - 210315Z

THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY THAT THE TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS WRN OK
MAY REMAIN INTACT AND POSE A LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND THREAT
ACROSS CNTRL OK/NWRN TX BY 03Z.  IF STORMS DO NOT WEAKEN
SOON...ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A SMALL PART OF CNTRL OK/NWRN
TX.

TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED/EVOLVED OFF THE DRYLINE EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN OK.  SINCE 0100Z...
TSTMS APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEGINNING
TO BE REPORTED.  INFLOW TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN INGESTING PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM A MORE STABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS NERN TX/ERN OK. 00Z OUN SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED INCREASING CINH
VALUES THAT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING TSTMS.  ALSO...STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO OUTRUN THE AXIS OF THE LLJ IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT
DEVELOPS FROM THE TX PNHDL INTO SWRN KS.  WITH THAT SAID...THE
CURRENT STORMS ARE FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AND IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR
THE SEVERE THREATS TO DIMINISH.

WILL MONITOR PROGRESS OF THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CURRENT
WW.  IF THEY SHOW NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING...ANOTHER SMALL WW MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK/NWRN TX.

..RACY.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

33619878 36789799 36349710 35369690 34529730 34009782 

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