[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210025 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN CO...SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210025Z - 210200Z

A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF EXTREME NERN CO...SWRN
NEB AND NWRN KS.  

VSBL IMAGERY AND COORDINATION WITH WFO GLD SUGGESTS THAT THE CU
FIELD VCNTY KGLD HAS BECOME CONGESTED /IE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED/
VCNTY WEAK NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY.  IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER TSTMS
WILL INITIATE IN THIS AREA OR EVOLVE/DEVELOP EWD FROM UPSTREAM CO
ACTIVITY.  TO FURTHER ADD UNCERTAINTY...LATEST SHORT TERM MESOSCALE
MODELS TAKE THE MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CNTRL ROCKIES LOW NEWD INTO NEB...AND ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED
ASCENT ALONG THE LLJ ACROSS NCNTRL KS LATER THIS EVENING.  IF STORMS
INDEED FORM OR DEVELOP EWD...VERTICAL SHEAR AND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. 

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHARACTER OF THE CLOUDS OVER NWRN KS AND
THE PROGRESS OF THE UPSTREAM CO ACTIVITY.  IF IT APPEARS THAT A
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EVOLVING...A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

..RACY.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

39810371 40550244 40590101 40619986 39669949 38780066
38640318 

WWWW