[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202028 
OKZ000-TXZ000-202230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202028Z - 202230Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 21Z-23Z ACROSS NW TX/ERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...WITH CONDITIONAL/PRIMARY THREAT OF VERY
LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD OVER WEST
TX AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH CORRESPONDING ACCAS OVERSPREADING
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD. 18Z RUC
SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CINH HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
INVOF A CHILDRESS-ABILINE CORRIDOR...AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER EXTENT
NWD ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR GAGE OK. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE IN THIS REGION...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
DEPICTING 2500-3500 J/KG 100 MB MLCAPE. ALTHOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY
EXISTS...MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR -- 25-30 KTS BASED ON 18Z AMA
RAOB AND 88D VADS -- SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO
DRYLINE/OCCUR EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLES.

..GUYER.. 04/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

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