[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200038 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN/CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 200038Z - 200245Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM CNTRL
NEB INTO CNTRL IA REMAINDER OF EVENING. THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL
WILL EXIST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT -- WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE WW. HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT EXPECTED TO
ULTIMATELY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING.

EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ALONG/NORTH
OF I-80 FROM CNTRL NEB INTO WCNTRL IA EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH
INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THIS BAROCLINIC
ZONE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AIRMASS INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 00Z OAX RAOB FEATURING 2500 J/KG MUCAPE
AND STEEP 7.8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE...IN PRESENCE OF NEGLIGIBLE
CINH.

IN SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /25 KTS OR
LESS/ SUGGESTS THREAT OF SEVERE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY IN
CONVECTIVE CYCLES. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR/SLOW EWD STORM MOTIONS...THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS
EVENING...AS TSTMS ULTIMATELY CONGEAL WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
ECHOES.

..GUYER.. 04/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

42799311 42469270 42219242 41309263 41059536 40969746
41019925 42349928 42709623