[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162302 
COZ000-NMZ000-170100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162302Z - 170100Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN
CO. TWO MAIN AREAS FOR A MARGINAL SVR THREAT WILL BE...1) JUST NORTH
OF THE RATON RIDGE REGION OF FAR SERN CO...AND 2) JUST NORTH OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE/SOUTH DENVER METRO AREA. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT A WW AND/OR AN OUTLOOK AMENDMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

SFC AND RADAR ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PALMER DIVIDE...JUST SOUTH OF THE
DENVER METRO AREA. AN ISOLATED STORM HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE LOW OVER WRN ELBERT CO. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT EAST OF THIS STORM...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 750
J/KG. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR ROTATING
STORMS...AROUND 30 KTS PER RECENT PUEBLO VWP...GIVEN LACK OF WLY
FLOW GREATER THAN 20 KTS IN THE 6-8 KM LAYER. THUS...ONLY A MARGINAL
SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS OR ANY OTHER STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS LOW
CENTER. FARTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LOCATED ON AND JUST NORTH SIDE OF THE RATON
RIDGE WILL CONTINUED TO FAVOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA. SIMILAR KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A SIMILAR
MARGINAL SVR THREAT FOR THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..CROSBIE.. 04/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

39160297 39740394 39720449 39040480 38340462 37650450
37210437 36960416 36910346 36960324 37130286 37870276 

WWWW