[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161913 
NMZ000-162145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN...NRN...AND CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161913Z - 162145Z

TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
WRN/NRN AND CNTRL NM THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LIMITING OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION...HAIL WILL BE QUITE
LIKELY.

LOW LEVEL SELY UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG
RESIDUAL N-S FRONTAL ZONE...AND DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING...HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN AND SCNTRL NM OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. PRESENTLY...WIND DIRECTION IN THE STORM
UPDRAFT LAYER VEERS FROM SELY TO SWLY AND OVERALL VECTOR SHEAR
REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN POORLY ORGANIZED
AND RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NM THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS IMPULSE...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN SHEAR...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING...MAY INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE ALSO LIKELY GIVEN HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND DRY
SUB CLOUD ENVIRONMENT.

..CARBIN.. 04/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

33290801 33890840 35570864 36060825 36660719 36890598
36750467 35650467 35030460 34590471 33750477 33150504
32640630 

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