[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 022017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022017 
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-022215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 022017Z - 022215Z

LOW TOPPED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER CNTRL/ERN VA NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.

DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH VA WITH AN AXIS OF PARTIAL
CLEARING FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN VA. WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...A
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN VA SSEWD THROUGH SERN VA. ALONG AND E
OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE LOWER 60S AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 300 TO
500 J/KG EXTENDS ACROSS ERN VA ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE INSTABILITY RESIDES IN A SHALLOW LAYER BETWEEN 0-5 KM...BUT COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE HEATING ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THIS
LAYER. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VORT MAX/JET STREAK SPREAD NEWD.
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SERVE AS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 04/02/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

36527701 36707761 37327793 38577858 38757762 37587642
36847630 

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