[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 012255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012255 
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CST FRI APR 01 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN SWD ACROSS NWRN GA/NERN AL INTO S-CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 012255Z - 020000Z

A NARROW SPATIAL CORRIDOR OF SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THIS
EVENING FROM ROUGHLY TYS SSWWD THROUGH RMG...ANB...MGM TO MOB.
ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

22Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER MIDDLE TN WITH
REGION OF 4-5 MB/3-HR PRESSURE FALLS OVER NERN TN INTO ERN
KY...LIKELY DEPICTING EVENTUAL TRACK OF CYCLONE. LINE OF TSTMS IS
CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM NERN AL SWWD TO W OF MOB...GENERALLY
MOVING EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC ANALYSIS
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ EXISTS AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE LINE FROM S-CNTRL AL INTO ERN TN. FARTHER E...COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXISTENCE OF BILLOW CLOUDS IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF GA INTO SERN
AL AND THE FL PNHDL IS LARGELY STABILIZED OUTFLOW FROM MCS IN
PROGRESS OVER NRN FL.

VWPS ACROSS NARROW WARM SECTOR ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR
BOWING STRUCTURES. THUS...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SPREAD E OF WW 122 THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NARROW SPATIAL EXTENT OF EXISTING INSTABILITY
AXIS...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 04/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...

33978614 35508539 36058451 35908362 35208395 33438554
31218650 31058717 31248793 32718669 

WWWW