[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010327 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-010430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN TX INTO WRN/CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 117...

VALID 010327Z - 010430Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ENTIRE WW AREA.

03Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER E-CNTRL TX /NEAR
GGG/ WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS LA TO VICINITY
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO
SURGE EWD ACROSS ERN/SERN TX. STORMS IN PROGRESS OVER NWRN LA HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING 1 INCH HAIL AND ARE LIKELY  ELEVATED ABOVE
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. INCREASING SLY LLJ AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO CNTRL MS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN THIS ELEVATED SEVERE STORM/LARGE HAIL THREAT N OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR GGG SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS
OF WW 117 WITHIN THE HOUR. MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 50-60
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR S OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL MAINTAIN
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

THUS FAR...SURFACE LOW HAS SHOWN LITTLE TENDENCY TO DEEPEN WITH
SURFACE WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
MARGINAL ACROSS WW AREA.

..MEAD.. 04/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

33029402 33009168 30689229 30739485 

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