[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010259 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-010400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0859 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 010259Z - 010400Z

GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER WRN 
PORTIONS OF WW 116 THROUGH 04Z-05Z...WHILE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER ERN PART OF WW.

AS OF 0240Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE HP SUPERCELL OVER WEST
FELICIANA/POINT COUPEE PARISHES MOVING 245/30KTS. THIS STORM APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED VERY NEAR WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD ACROSS SRN LA.
INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000
J/KG AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. CURRENT VWPS FROM LCH AND LIX
INDICATE FAVORABLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 45-55 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN
LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ATTM...IT APPEARS PRIMARY FACTORS LIMITING TORNADO THREAT IS WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /PER LATEST BTR/LFT OBSERVATIONS/ AND
RAIN-COOLED NEAR SURFACE AIR N OF WARM FRONT.

OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA /I.E. E OF A MCB TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
LINE/ STORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A LARGE COMPLEX WITH BACKBUILDING
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG WRN EDGE OF SYSTEM.  PERSISTENT INFLUX
OF 1.7-1.9 INCH PW AIR MASS ATOP OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD SUSTAIN
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA WITH
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

..MEAD.. 04/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

31849194 31768840 30158839 30229198 

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