[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010107 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 115...

VALID 010107Z - 010300Z

LINE OF SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS OF WW 115. THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER FAR ERN PORTIONS OF
WW 115 AND WRN LA AROUND 06Z.

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES EWD AROUND 20 KTS INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS...MUCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG...THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY NORTH/SOUTH ALONG THE
CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF WW 115. SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
LARGE HAIL GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR WILL REMAIN NEARLY PERPENDICULAR
TO THE CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTING THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE
FOR SOME TIME. TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...TOWARDS 06Z...AS CONVECTION MOVES TOWARDS ERN EDGE OF WW
115 AND INTO WRN LA WHEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND HIGHER
DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S MOVES NWD.

SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS FAR NERN TX...WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN
AOB 1000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL STILL
EXIST...GIVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THAT THIS AREA WILL NOT BE
CLEARED FROM WW 115 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

..CROSBIE.. 04/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

30779708 31809662 33139603 33749565 33689370 30759483 

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